COVID-19 in India – Mathematical Model Suggests What India Should Do to Control the Virus


Highlights
  • 21 lockdown may not be enough to control the transmission of COVID-19 in India.
  • Additional days may be needed to lower the rate of infections
  • A mathematical model from two Indian scholars
COVID-19 in India

Two Indian scholars from University of Cambridge have developed a mathematical model which has predicted that the existing 21 day lockdown may not be sufficient to control the transmission of COVID-19 in India.

The current world is in battle with the outbreak of novel coronavirus, and policy makers, along with the researchers are looking for a way to control the transmission and a vaccine that can eliminate the virus. Countries all over the world has imposed restrictions on the movement and travelling of the general people and maintaining the social distance, because these will at least prevent the transmission from the infected people to non-infected people.

India, like other countries in the world, has also taken the step to prevent the transmission by imposing 21 days lockdown through the entire country. But a new mathematical model has been developed by two Indian scholars who have predicted that the 21 days lockdown may not be enough to control the spread. The two scholars named, Rajesh Singh and R. Adhikari from the University of Cambridge, opine that the social contact structure of the Indian people may cause the COVID-19 to act in a different way than it acted in China and Italy.

Their proposed model compares the case data, social structures and age distribution of India, Italy and China. The model reveals that in Germany, the mortality rate is the lowest among the other European countries. It is because Germany has ensured that the grand-parents are staying away from their grandchildren because grandchildren can spread the virus most efficiently.

The model suggests that 21 day lockdown isn’t enough; There can be a resurgence of the outbreak; Despite the lockdown, there can be 2727 deaths Young people are the prominent carriers of COVID-19; and Old ones will face the ultimate severity.